Richard Heuer
- proposed that thinking is a learned skill
a few of my notes are here:
Perception
- goal is accurate perception (an active process)
- “we tend to perceive what we expect to perceive”
- “mind-sets tend to be quick to form but resistant to change”
- “new information is assimilated to existing images”
- these drawings change from man → woman. when subjects are shown the image of a man first, they will be more resistant when the rest of the images of a woman are shown. they will see the man longer than someone who is only shown a single picture of a woman
- This drawing is a young/old woman. If you see one, try and see the other perspective. sense how difficult it is
- analysts need to constantly be looking at different perspectives
- “initial exposure to blurred or ambiguous stimuli interferes with accurate perception even after more and better information becomes available”
Improving intelligence analysis (a checklist for analysts)
- defining the problem - ask the right questions (asking management)
- generating hypotheses - list any ideas that are relevant
- collecting information - gather information for the hypotheses, develop alternative hypotheses
- evaluating hypotheses - could use a matrix format, protect yourself against cognitive biases
- selecting the most likely hypothesis
- ongoing monitoring - new information can change analytic conclusions
management of analysis
- support for research